Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Graphical Fire Outlook
Day 1 Fire Outlook Discussion
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 131642
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...Central Wyoming...
A robust upper-level low continues to make eastward progress into
the Pacific Northwest while an accompanying 65-70 knot mid-level jet
maxima moves into the Northern Rockies. Surface pressure falls
observed across the northern WY/northern high plains of MT will
persist as a surface low evolves across this region. Resultant
stronger deep-layer southwest flow within a well-mixed and dry
boundary layer is expected for a few hours this afternoon across
central WY. Sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph and RH as low as
15% will align with dry fuels (ERCs in the 80-90th percentile range)
where Elevated highlights have been introduced. These dry and breezy
conditions will occur prior to potential showers and thunderstorms
late this afternoon and evening.
No changes were made to the existing Elevated highlights across the
Great Basin into portions of the Snake River Valley and southwestern
Montana as forecast remains on track.
..Williams.. 09/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level low with a 65-70 kt jet streak is expected to
progress eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, resulting in
widespread dry and windy conditions across portions of the Great
Basin into the Snake River Valley and far southwestern Montana.
...Great Basin into portions of Idaho and Montana...
Dry and windy conditions owing to deep boundary layer mixing beneath
the strong upper low and associated jet streak will result in
widespread 15-20 MPH winds across much of the Great Basin during the
afternoon. From southern Nevada into far western Utah, relative
humidity could reach as low as 10-15% with southwesterly winds,
while the post-frontal airmass across northern Nevada will possess
westerly winds with 15-20% relative humidity. With ERCs approaching
the 80th annual percentiles, at least Elevated fire-weather
conditions are expected, and locally Critical conditions are
possible where terrain induced wind gusts are favored. Further north
into the Snake River Valley and portions of southwest Montana,
southwest winds of 20 MPH (with locally higher gusts) are
anticipated to overlap with relative humidity of around 15%. While
there appears to be a potential corridor for Critical fire-weather
concerns, they overlap with more modest fuels and a lower density
fuelscape.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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