Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) Index

Data Courtesy Climate Data Center


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Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is one of the most remarkable phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere. High above the equator, in the stratosphere, strong zonal winds blow in a continuous circuit around the Earth. At a given altitude, the winds might start as westerlies, but over time they weaken and eventually reverse, becoming strong easterlies. Looking at different heights, we see that the peak amplitude of the westerly winds migrates slowly downwards, with the zone of easterly winds coming behind it also migrating downwards. When the winds approach the base of the stratosphere, at around 80 hPa, they dissipate. New bands of zonal winds appear in the mid-stratosphere, at around 10 hPa, to replace the bands which migrate downwards. At any one time, there is one region of easterlies and one region of westerlies. The whole cycle progresses at a fairly (but not entirely) uniform rate, taking on average 26 months to return to the starting state.



Current QBO

Current QBO




Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found. At the 30mb level, with regards to monthly mean zonal winds, the strongest recorded easterly was 29.55 m/s in November 2005, while the strongest recorded westerly was only 15.62 m/s in June 1995.


Zonal Winds

Zonal Winds



Effects of the QBO include mixing of stratospheric ozone by the secondary circulation caused by the QBO, modification of monsoon precipitation, and an influence on stratospheric circulation in northern hemisphere winter (mediated partly by a change in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings). Eastward phases of the QBO often coincide with more sudden stratospheric warmings, a weaker Atlantic jet stream and cold winters in Northern Europe and eastern USA whereas westward phases of the QBO often coincide with mild winters in eastern USA and a strong Atlantic jet stream with mild, wet stormy winters in northern Europe. In addition, the QBO has been shown to affect hurricane frequency during hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and research has also been conducted investigating a possible relationship between ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and the QBO.


The images below show the impacts that negative QBO's have had on Winter temperatures.



Winter Temps with QBO -10 to -15 (Image from WXRisk.com)

Winter Temps with QBO -10 to -15



Winter Temps with QBO -15 to -20 (Image from WXRisk.com)

Winter Temps with QBO -15 to -20



Weak Nina's and Negative QBO's from November through March (Image from WXRisk.com)

Weak Nina's and Negative QBO's from November through March



The QBO State and Temperature Anomalies for the entire DJF Period

The images below show the temperature anomalies for combined DJF winter months. I took all of the QBO's that were -10.00 or less (see the table below the images), and went back and captured the temperature anomalies for those periods.

The WARM/NORMAL/COLD designation is based on the anomalies in the table on the right. In the table you'll see the strength of the QBO, which is really just an arbitrary breakdown based on the max/min values during the seasons that were very negative, a list of the DJF seasons (years) that had a negative QBO below -10, the approximate range of QBO values for the entire period, the classification for that winter season based on the anomalies (WARM/NORMAL/COLD), and the approximate temperature anomalies for us across North Georgia. The "Normal" designation was a DJF season that was +/- 1 degree of normal for our area, anything above that was classified warm and anything below was classified cold. I added the rough anonmaly values to help illustrate just how cold it really was. Keep in mind, these anomalies are for the entire winter season, so it's pretty impressive to see anomalies that cold that last for that long. Also note, the warm periods weren't as warm as the cold periods were cold, and there were fewer of them.

As you can see in the image, there were 8 Cold (50%) winters, 3 Warm (18.8%), and 5 Normal (31.3%). The "Cold" averaged between 5.25-6.5 degrees below normal, the "Normal" averaged about 0.4 degrees above normal, and the "Warm" winters averaged between 3-4.3 degrees above normal.

It's pretty easy to see that a negative QBO can really aid in the development of a cold winter.

NOTE: The scale changes on the images, so they are not consistent. Please read the legend at the bottom of each image for the actual values.




DJF Cold QBO's DJF Normal QBO's
   
   
DJF Hot QBO's DJF QBO less than -10



QBO Values by Year and Month

Quasi-Bienial Oscillation (QBO) Data Updated: 7/13/2026
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average
1948 -4.44 -5.78 -7.31 -6.70 -5.57 -4.73 -5.51 -7.22 -7.24 -6.07 -6.28 -8.18 -6.25
1949 -9.77 -11.80 -11.72 -10.69 -9.34 -9.43 -9.07 -9.08 -8.32 -7.01 -6.43 -7.24 -9.16
1950 -8.99 -11.37 -10.63 -8.19 -6.09 -6.61 -7.11 -6.51 -3.82 -2.39 -2.18 -3.31 -6.43
1951 -6.01 -5.32 -1.93 0.91 2.26 -0.30 -2.70 -5.31 -5.92 -4.59 -3.65 -3.98 -3.05
1952 -6.80 -7.71 -6.99 -5.68 -4.76 -6.00 -7.60 -8.15 -5.73 -2.96 -0.51 -1.65 -5.38
1953 -2.94 -2.68 -1.22 1.30 2.69 1.86 0.10 -1.21 -1.28 -0.39 -0.59 -2.18 -0.55
1954 -5.05 -6.88 -7.98 -9.01 -11.38 -12.72 -13.40 -14.53 -12.83 -10.35 -9.99 -9.56 -10.31
1955 -5.82 -1.71 1.37 4.40 6.58 6.73 5.99 7.20 8.16 9.02 7.63 3.82 4.45
1956 -1.01 -3.23 -2.01 -2.01 -6.16 -11.02 -13.04 -15.17 -14.67 -14.90 -16.96 -15.02 -9.60
1957 -13.05 -11.89 -6.68 -2.01 1.80 3.21 4.05 6.30 8.36 10.46 10.11 7.35 1.50
1958 5.25 4.10 4.27 1.98 -4.71 -10.60 -13.91 -15.59 -15.93 -16.39 -16.91 -18.96 -8.12
1959 -20.06 -17.24 -14.02 -9.27 -5.91 -2.30 3.15 7.07 10.09 11.69 10.71 8.30 -1.48
1960 4.79 3.39 -0.04 -1.08 -3.91 -8.98 -13.86 -16.04 -16.01 -15.62 -14.42 -11.36 -7.76
1961 -5.47 -0.62 0.54 2.82 6.88 7.96 6.69 5.60 6.02 7.59 8.74 6.25 4.42
1962 2.84 3.68 5.26 2.04 -3.64 -11.42 -15.49 -15.00 -15.19 -15.33 -15.40 -15.16 -7.73
1963 -17.35 -16.68 -19.93 -21.52 -24.18 -20.08 -9.27 -1.35 3.52 7.54 8.87 5.48 -8.75
1964 3.94 5.26 5.46 5.94 6.32 2.23 -0.56 -0.57 -0.67 0.42 0.71 0.04 2.38
1965 -1.03 -2.26 -1.98 -3.44 -7.10 -12.01 -16.00 -18.19 -20.03 -20.13 -19.74 -21.27 -11.93
1966 -21.90 -17.14 -11.07 -2.33 2.16 5.42 7.47 7.63 9.23 11.00 11.74 13.26 1.29
1967 11.03 10.49 10.94 10.13 5.79 -0.58 -5.65 -6.76 -6.06 -4.82 -6.05 -7.27 0.93
1968 -8.38 -10.21 -9.11 -12.25 -14.39 -19.27 -21.00 -21.82 -17.45 -14.58 -13.11 -11.36 -14.41
1969 -8.58 -4.43 -1.50 3.98 8.18 9.35 9.08 9.78 9.74 9.75 7.34 5.00 4.81
1970 0.30 -1.41 -4.63 -7.25 -12.21 -16.25 -18.62 -21.38 -21.67 -22.12 -22.48 -17.39 -13.76
1971 -10.67 -3.67 0.91 3.75 6.77 8.28 8.88 8.34 8.95 8.48 8.47 9.10 4.80
1972 8.20 7.95 7.35 6.22 -2.59 -10.70 -15.45 -19.28 -20.40 -21.17 -20.49 -16.78 -8.10
1973 -4.40 0.08 3.40 6.28 8.12 8.63 6.94 5.86 5.51 5.20 4.92 2.31 4.40
1974 -0.91 -1.31 -1.08 -1.92 -7.58 -13.86 -19.58 -23.14 -23.52 -23.12 -22.48 -22.57 -13.42
1975 -16.70 -15.39 -13.04 -5.12 1.18 4.47 7.41 9.06 10.25 10.65 11.27 10.95 1.25
1976 9.22 8.92 9.70 11.53 10.04 2.78 -1.90 -4.89 -6.19 -8.23 -8.89 -11.85 0.85
1977 -14.44 -14.90 -17.61 -14.93 -17.14 -21.33 -18.17 -11.24 -5.09 -1.81 -0.26 1.69 -11.27
1978 3.21 6.07 9.34 12.98 12.23 8.36 6.02 5.84 5.91 6.22 4.04 1.46 6.81
1979 1.86 4.12 0.89 -3.57 -12.90 -19.60 -21.27 -22.24 -22.70 -23.32 -22.20 -16.99 -13.16
1980 -10.11 -5.65 -2.90 2.31 6.24 7.33 8.74 9.61 12.67 13.10 12.15 9.73 5.27
1981 8.51 6.72 7.51 8.28 3.01 -3.49 -5.22 -8.24 -8.59 -9.53 -9.62 -12.31 -1.91
1982 -12.52 -14.71 -16.67 -15.55 -15.26 -15.94 -8.95 -1.58 4.21 8.27 9.51 10.35 -5.74
1983 10.85 11.40 12.17 13.81 11.93 3.12 -3.38 -6.53 -7.75 -10.12 -10.29 -11.42 1.15
1984 -10.65 -11.34 -12.98 -14.58 -15.05 -17.97 -25.39 -27.90 -25.44 -21.59 -13.19 -8.16 -17.02
1985 -0.37 4.21 6.30 11.11 13.57 14.04 11.10 11.08 11.72 11.84 11.45 9.51 9.63
1986 8.74 10.15 11.96 9.11 3.56 -2.15 -5.25 -9.60 -10.21 -9.60 -8.01 -10.51 -0.98
1987 -9.93 -11.37 -14.23 -16.20 -20.05 -21.47 -13.96 -0.60 5.88 9.35 9.23 8.41 -6.25
1988 7.81 6.17 5.86 6.59 5.46 0.42 -3.96 -2.58 -2.29 -1.53 -0.84 -2.42 1.56
1989 -2.87 -3.56 -1.63 -1.93 -5.46 -9.38 -13.86 -16.98 -18.83 -21.30 -19.01 -13.54 -10.70
1990 -8.71 -6.74 0.95 5.72 11.46 12.90 12.54 12.63 13.21 12.39 11.55 10.68 7.38
1991 8.71 8.44 9.00 10.69 3.82 -3.34 -10.36 -14.69 -13.96 -12.21 -12.27 -12.68 -3.24
1992 -13.96 -14.33 -16.84 -17.79 -15.96 -15.34 -12.05 -4.75 1.30 3.94 6.33 8.19 -7.61
1993 9.63 10.81 11.36 12.60 13.56 6.55 0.38 -1.20 -1.14 -4.04 -5.76 -6.00 3.90
1994 -7.64 -9.84 -11.29 -14.71 -18.03 -23.09 -28.65 -27.02 -19.07 -10.29 -0.30 5.93 -13.67
1995 8.38 8.01 8.79 11.79 14.92 15.62 11.74 9.53 6.98 3.43 -0.77 -4.57 7.82
1996 -5.79 -6.90 -9.92 -11.08 -14.88 -17.03 -23.93 -25.85 -26.02 -23.40 -18.08 -9.86 -16.06
1997 -3.57 1.94 4.77 9.74 12.37 14.50 14.85 11.69 11.64 9.91 5.74 0.78 7.86
1998 -0.85 -2.96 -4.92 -7.82 -14.08 -18.57 -22.97 -24.70 -22.12 -18.77 -12.22 -3.96 -12.83
1999 3.09 5.84 8.59 13.51 15.56 15.23 14.11 11.91 11.18 10.62 6.01 6.43 10.17
2000 4.85 4.20 5.51 3.98 -0.99 -7.83 -13.13 -15.31 -15.52 -14.04 -15.07 -14.56 -6.49
2001 -15.69 -15.53 -15.99 -17.73 -20.99 -23.31 -24.45 -21.67 -14.29 -10.81 -3.88 1.48 -15.24
2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05 10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50 8.72
2003 -1.39 -1.43 -3.30 -8.56 -13.63 -17.71 -22.99 -24.64 -22.51 -20.34 -17.86 -11.38 -13.81
2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96 8.74 7.29 8.00 4.35 2.45 6.60
2005 -0.69 -0.96 -0.33 -6.64 -15.09 -20.59 -24.20 -25.87 -27.80 -28.76 -29.55 -25.04 -17.13
2006 -18.83 -11.24 -0.38 5.00 10.36 11.47 10.75 9.10 10.20 10.86 10.10 6.21 4.47
2007 2.61 2.43 1.24 -5.18 -14.06 -21.33 -24.92 -27.41 -28.13 -29.05 -27.61 -19.48 -15.91
2008 -12.42 -4.70 2.19 6.43 11.53 13.45 13.27 11.63 11.60 11.05 9.13 10.46 6.97
2009 10.71 12.33 11.44 9.11 1.56 -5.47 -12.21 -14.45 -13.81 -11.69 -13.83 -15.57 -3.49
2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58 10.83 12.16 10.97 -7.95
2011 9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02 3.90 0.44 -0.49 -2.30 -3.05 -9.09 -16.25 1.96
2012 -16.07 -15.25 -16.74 -17.62 -22.04 -25.89 -27.82 -27.93 -26.60 -24.51 -18.95 -10.02 -20.79
2013 -6.07 -1.23 2.85 8.39 12.64 13.38 14.27 14.66 13.12 11.69 12.45 12.55 9.06
2014 13.13 12.68 11.72 7.15 -2.81 -13.98 -19.29 -21.64 -23.24 -23.86 -23.65 -25.38 -9.10
2015 -26.70 -28.62 -28.15 -24.38 -12.33 2.18 7.45 10.97 12.07 13.38 12.79 11.39 -4.16
2016 9.34 6.77 3.16 0.64 2.37 3.86 6.25 10.07 10.48 12.83 14.16 15.09 7.92
2017 14.92 14.78 14.35 13.88 8.01 -3.18 -10.48 -14.42 -15.28 -16.79 -17.20 -18.12 -2.46
2018 -19.02 -19.37 -19.77 -21.41 -24.23 -28.45 -29.10 -20.41 -9.91 -2.79 3.36 8.05 -15.25
2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 1.66 9.63
2020 -2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34 4.78 7.95 10.80 11.15 10.37 1.89
2021 10.19 8.92 9.75 5.25 0.31 -6.93 -13.17 -13.82 -16.56 -19.14 -19.78 -21.58 -6.38
2022 -23.01 -25.19 -26.34 -26.20 -19.70 -3.78 3.04 7.87 9.80 10.93 12.45 11.70 -5.70
2023 12.50 9.80 10.93 12.89 9.26 0.72 -5.96 -9.88 -13.58 -16.98 -19.80 -22.69 -2.73
2024 -24.56 -25.54 -28.56 -23.42 -6.52 1.95 6.91 8.61 10.36 11.64 13.78 12.70 -3.55
2025 12.11 10.55 11.82 6.94 -4.59 -13.72 -19.99 -22.28 -24.26 -24.65 -25.35 -26.92 -10.03
2026 -25.51 -23.13                      
Average -3.35 -2.70 -1.75 -1.14 -2.08 -4.31 -5.79 -5.76 -4.86 -4.06 -3.71 -3.65 -3.60
High 14.92 14.78 14.35 14.03 15.56 15.62 14.85 14.66 13.21 13.38 14.16 15.09 14.55
Low -26.70 -28.62 -28.56 -26.20 -26.28 -28.45 -29.10 -27.93 -28.13 -29.05 -29.55 -26.92 -27.96
  Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec  
https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data