Georgia Winters since 1950 with DJF Below Normal
Data Courtesy NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
A Look at Georgia Winters since 1950 with the Entire Winter Season Below Normal
I decided to go back and look at our past cold winters to see if thate data would help to show any correlations between the teleconnections/ENSO and how those winters turned out. I limited my view to all winters that averaged below normal temperatures for the entire December, January, and February (DJF) period since 1950 across North Georgia, and found 28 out of the 75 winters since 1950 met that criteria.
The 2nd table below lists those winter seasons in the first column. The next three columns are the ENSO numbers for each 3-month period. The center column in red is the DJF period, but I also added the 1st and 3rd columns around it to show the preceding (before winter) and trailing period (after winter) so you could see if the Nino/Nina was fading or growing stronger.
The 5 columns under the "DJF AVERAGE" title are some of the teleconnections that have an impact on our winter weather. I took the average of the the 3-month period for each teleconnection, and those are the values you see in the table. I also have EPO data, but weirdly enough, none of it includes December. One thing I want to point out about the colors in the table is that when each teleconnection is in a favorable state for winter weather here in the southeast I have highlighted that cell with a blue fill, unfavorable states are highlighted with a red fill. Also notice that there are years with many unfavorable states that are still below normal.
There are quit a few things that I found interesting, and one of those is in this table which is also at the bottom of the larger table. 43% or 12 out of 28 of all the below normal winters occurred in a "Neutral" ENSO environment. And if those were back-loaded winters, JFM percentages go up to 54%. So a Neutral ENSO is the ticket to increase our cold winter chances, but still just one of many other pieces of the puzzle.
To the right of the ENSO section in the image to the right, you'll see "Percent of Seasons with Favorable Indices" and you're probably wondering what that means. In the case of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), 93% of the cold DJF winters averaged negative for the entire period. Without a -AO, don't expect a cold winter. You may get some shots, but nothing prolonged.
But notice the high percentages for the other teleconnections. To get cold weather across the southeast, the more teleconnections that are in a favorable state the better. But also notice that there are some years where only a few are favorable, or they had strong Nina's/Nino's. I noticed that it's also difficult to form a -NAO and even more difficult to maintain it. To learn more about the major teleconnections, click on these links:
AO Index | AMOC Index | ENSO | EPO Index | MEIv2 Index | NAO Index | PDO Index | PNA Index | QBO Index
Only two seasons had all indices line up, 66-77 and 62-63, and they were the two coldest of all the years, while only one year had everything going against it and still managed -2 below normal for the DJF period. While there are obviously other factors like the MJO, Stratospheric Warming, etc, which all add to the mix, this at least gives you a good snapshot of what it took to get some of these very cold winters across North Georgia.
Table of Winters since 1950 with DJF Below Normal
The images below show the 28 winter seasons, newest to oldest, with the temperature anomalies on the left and the Winter Ranking on the right. Each image covers the entire December, January, and February (DJF) Winter Season for all of those 28 below normal Winters since 1950.
| 2010's | |
| 2013-2014 Temperature Anomaly | 2013-2014 Ranking |
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| 2010-2011 Temperature Anomaly | 2010-2011 Ranking |
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| 2000's | |
| 2009-2010 Temperature Anomaly | 2009-2010 Ranking |
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| 2003-2004 Temperature Anomaly | 2003-2004 Ranking |
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| 2002-2003 Temperature Anomaly | 2002-2003 Ranking |
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| 2000-2001 Temperature Anomaly | 2000-2001 Ranking |
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| 1990's | |
| 1995-1996 Temperature Anomaly | 1995-1996 Ranking |
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| 1993-1994 Temperature Anomaly | 1993-1994 Ranking |
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| 1980's | |
| 1987-1988 Temperature Anomaly | 1987-1988 Ranking |
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| 1983-1984 Temperature Anomaly | 1983-1984 Ranking |
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| 1981-1982 Temperature Anomaly | 1981-1982 Ranking |
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| 1980-1981 Temperature Anomaly | 1980-1981 Ranking |
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| 1970's | |
| 1979-1980 Temperature Anomaly | 1979-1980 Ranking |
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| 1978-1979 Temperature Anomaly | 1978-1979 Ranking |
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| 1977-1978 Temperature Anomaly | 1977-1978 Ranking |
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| 1976-1977 Temperature Anomaly | 1976-1977 Ranking |
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| 1975-1976 Temperature Anomaly | 1975-1976 Ranking |
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| 1960's | |
| 1969-1970 Temperature Anomaly | 1969-1970 Ranking |
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| 1968-1969 Temperature Anomaly | 1968-1969 Ranking |
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| 1967-1968 Temperature Anomaly | 1967-1968 Ranking |
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| 1966-1967 Temperature Anomaly | 1966-1967 Ranking |
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| 1965-1966 Temperature Anomaly | 1965-1966 Ranking |
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| 1963-1964 Temperature Anomaly | 1963-1964 Ranking |
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| 1962-1963 Temperature Anomaly | 1962-1963 Ranking |
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| 1960-1961 Temperature Anomaly | 1960-1961 Ranking |
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| 1950's | |
| 1959-1960 Temperature Anomaly | 1959-1960 Ranking |
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| 1958-1959 Temperature Anomaly | 1958-1959 Ranking |
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| 1957-1958 Temperature Anomaly | 1957-1958 Ranking |
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| 1950-1951 Temperature Anomaly | 1950-1951 Ranking |
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